February 10th 2015:
On this date, we published a Football is Fixed blog about Professional Game Match Official Board (PGMOB) referee Jon Moss and a few statistical flukes relating to his officiating, namely -
a) On 17 occasions, Moss has refereed WBA. In those games, he has given 11 penalties/sendings off in favour of the Albion and none against.
b) There is a positive correlation between volume betting at certain layers in the 60-30 min to Kick Off window and match decisions on the field of play. In the 11 matches where this pattern existed, the dynamic was always replicated in the match outcome and match decisions were tilted 11-1 in favour of the dynamic.
c) We showed a historical relationship between Moss and leading agent John Colquhoun.
d) We have also indicated historically the excessive number of BT Sports Live Matches given to Mr Moss.
e) We have additionally bemoaned the friendship between Alastair Campbell (Burnley FC and War Crimes Apologist) and John Colquhoun.
f) We had previously released a Tweet pointing out that, with the signing of Adam Forshaw, there were now 7 Key Sports/John Colquhoun players at Middlesbrough.
With the arrival of Adam Forshaw, there are now 7 Key Sports-represented players at #Middlesborough!
— FOOTBALL is FIXED (@footballisfixed) January 27, 2015
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http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/once-dead-good-and-bad-are-covered-by.html
In period after this blog post, below is what the zeitgeist served up...
... a statistically significant rum situation.
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February 16th 2015
PGMOB announce referees for following weekend. Moss gets to officiate BT Sports Live Match between Spurs and West Ham.
February 23rd 2015
PGMOB release referee lists for two rounds of EPL games in the ten day period ahead. Moss is given the game on Saturday between Burnley and Swansea City together with the BT Sports Live Match midweek between Aston Villa and West Bromwich Albion.
February 28th 2015
The pre-match betting market on Burnley v Swansea was abusive with an entirely fake engendered gamble being offset by insider trading from from Kick Off minus 30 mins onwards. This is the most simplistic Tubthumping market abuse that one can imagine - the Asians moved beyond this level of disguise two decades ago!
We disclosed the suspect market pre-match on Twitter. Swansea won with a very rare occurrence - an assisted own-goal. This is when a shot going wide is deflected towards goal by one defending player before being helped into the net by another.
For the first time in 12 instances, the insider trading did not occur in the 60-30min window.
@JohnboyMaclean The outcome will be a defeat for the integrity of #PremierLeague football. But beware, market structure is not obvious.
— FOOTBALL is FIXED (@footballisfixed) February 28, 2015
March 2nd 2015
Select Group referees announced for next weekend and Jon Moss is to referee Nottingham Forest v Middlesbrough.
For the first time this season, Moss referees lower than EPL, and on Middlesbrough.
March 3rd 2015
Aston Villa v WBA was the type of chaotic event at which Moss excels (Everton 3 Chelsea 6; Man City 4 Spurs 1).
We blogged post-match: "Jon Moss ... denied Villa a penalty and the potential sending off of Foster, before not sending off Hutton for assaulting Saido Berahino before topping it all off with a hugely theatrical point to the spot for the injury time penalty given away by Foster (who should no longer have been on the pitch). A truly Warholian performance."
For the first time in 18 games when Moss officiates, a penalty/sending off went against West Brom.
@footballisfixed Without mocking certain operations, there is art in sublety not in the absurd. You are pricking your bubble.
— FOOTBALL is FIXED (@footballisfixed) March 3, 2015
March 7th 2015
What will happen at the City Ground this afternoon when Jon Moss has his first Championship game of the season (featuring a club where seven Key Sports' players earn their living)?
But this is the whole point.
Who cares?
With seven players in one squad and one player in the other and a referee blowing the whistle, any Tom Dick or Harry could achieve whatever outcome they desired.
Little wonder some Asian layers are refusing to accept the late English insider money.
But the questions begging to be asked are these?
How did these appointments come to be made?
How did the original market abusive patterns reach fruition?
How were inverse market outcomes solicited if not, yet again, via matchfixing?
In the final part of this troika of posts, we will demonstrate the manners in which suspicious betting patterns and market holistics might be tied to particular corrupt operations in the marketplace.
